Trump Will Likely Lose New York Criminal Case

By: Donald V. Watkins

Copyrighted and Published on April 4, 2023

IMAGE: Former president Donald J. Trump at his April 4, 2023 arraignment in a Manhattan, New York state court.

Many readers have asked for my opinion about the likely outcome of the New York state criminal case against Donald Trump. I currently hold the record in American jurisprudence for winning the most felony counts (85) in a single-defendant case, U.S. v. Richard Scrushy (2003-2005). No white-collar criminal defendant before or since Richard Scrushy has defeated 85 felony charges in an individual case.

Donald Trump is facing 34 felony counts of FALSIFYING BUSINESS RECORDS IN THE FIRST DEGREE, in violation of Penal Law §175.10. He has entered a plea of NOT GUILTY.

At this juncture, Trump is presumed to be INNOCENT of all 34 felony charges.

That being said, Donald Trump will likely lose this criminal case for the following reasons:

1. This is a criminal case that relies heavily on documents to prove.

2. The documents exist to prove the 34 felonies cited in the Indictment.

3. The witnesses required to prove Trump’s intent to violate the law on each count already exist, and they have testified before the grand jury that indicted him.

4. Other documents likely exist to corroborate that Trump intended to falsify the business records listed in the Indictment.

5. Trump, himself, will NOT take the witness stand.

6. Trump is represented by the WRONG kind of criminal lawyers who are executing the WRONG kind of defensive strategy in the WRONG way in a venue where Trump is NOT popular.

7. The prosecution team only needs to win on ONE criminal count, while Trump must win all THIRTY-FOUR counts.

8. If Trump continues to attack Trial Judge Juan Merchan, his wife and daughter, and District Attorney Alvin Bragg and/or members of Bragg's staff in the media, and one of these individuals gets hurt or killed by a Trump “patriot,” Trump's bond will be revoked immediately, and he will be jailed pending his trial.

Donald Trump’s New York criminal case is serious business, and should be treated as such. A guilty plea is out of the question.

To win on 34 felony charges, Trump's legal team must: (a) exhibit incredible focus and discipline, (b) possess exceptional trial skills in highly complex criminal cases, (c) prepare a very concise, simple, and easy to understand theme of the case for the defense, and (d) perfectly execute about 3,000 discreet and carefully calculated legal moves in a sequential order.

None of this exists within Trump’s legal camp today.