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  • Writer's pictureDonald V. Watkins

Biden, Trump Tied in NYT/Siena College Poll; Independent Voters Will Decide Who Wins in 2024

By: Donald V. Watkins

Copyrighted and Published on August 1, 2023

President Joe Biden and former President Donald J. Trump are tied in a hypothetical 2024 rematch, but each man remains unpopular with voters, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released earlier today.

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, both Biden and Trump would receive 43% support overall from registered voters surveyed. However, both men continue to have high disapproval numbers, with 54% of voters disapproving of Biden and 55% of Trump, according to the survey.

The poll of 1,329 registered voters nationwide, including an over-sample of 818 registered Republican voters, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline phones from July 23-27, 2023. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.67 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 3.96 percentage points for the likely Republican primary electorate.

The national poll was published roughly 15 months before the election on Nov. 5, 2024, and less than six months before the first primary contest.

Despite those high unfavorable ratings, Biden and Trump continue to be the commanding leaders for their respective party's presidential nomination.

Independent voters will decide the outcome of the likely Biden-Trump rematch. As a passionate Independent voter in California, I am part of a nationwide group of Independent voters that is organizing a block of at least 2 million likely Independent voters in six swing states for the 2024 presidential election.

Next year, a Super-PAC affiliated with our group of Independent voters will incorporate in California and raise and spend up to $75 million on voter registration, public relations initiatives, political advertising, and GTOV activities in the targeted swing states for the 2024 presidential election.

The recent spate of criminal indictments against Donald Trump, including today's federal indictment in Washington, is not expected to derail his political support within the Republican Party or negatively impact his chances of winning the presidency.

Likewise, Joe Biden's political support has been stagnant for nearly three years. In fact, about half of all registered Democratic voters would like their Party to select another nominee for president.


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